自然灾害对农户贫困脆弱性的影响——基于云南省2009年的实证分析

自然灾害会对以农业生产为主的农户产生重大影响,灾害频发有时会成为农户返贫、致贫的主要因素之一。为了研究自然灾害对农户贫困脆弱性的影响程度,找出影响农户贫困的主要因素,本文运用因子分析法和主成分分析法对云南省16个州市2009年截面数据进行定量分析。结果表明,地理环境是影响农户脆弱性最主要因素:云南省北部地区贫困脆弱性明显高于南部、全省海拔较高地区的脆弱性相应也较高;其次是保障水平:经济实力较弱,保障体系不完善的地区脆弱性较高。文章最后根据云南省实际情况提出:要结合不同地区脆弱性的差异,加大基础设施建设,发展落后地区经济,提高当地保障水平,增强各市州自身对自然灾害的应对能力,降低灾害的风险。

Impacts of the Natural Disasters on Poverty Vulnerability of Farmer Households——Based on Empirical Analysis of Yunnan Province in 2009

The natural disasters will make a great impact on farmers who live mainly on agricultural production.Sometimes,the frequently-occurring disasters will be one of the main factors leading to farmers' poverty or re-poverty.To study the influence degree of natural disasters on farmer households' poverty and vulnerability,and find out the main factors resulting in farmers' poverty,the factor analytic method and the principal components analytic method are utilized to make a quantitative analysis of 16 state cities' cross-section data of Yunnan province in 2009.The results show that the geographical environment is the main factor affecting farmers' vulnerability:poverty vulnerability in the northern part of Yunnan is obviously higher than that of the southern part,and vulnerability in high altitude area is also correspondingly high.At the safeguard level:vulnerability is higher in the areas with weak economic strength and imperfect security system.According to the actual situation of Yunnan province,some proposals are supplied:according to vulnerability differences in different places,the government should expand the building of infrastructural facilities,develop economy in the backward areas,raise the local safeguard level,strengthen various cities' ability to resist natural disasters,and reduce disaster's risk.