锡林河流域径流量变化对气候变化与人类活动的响应

选取锡林河集水区域为研究区,基于1968-2015年水文和气象数据序列,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验进行趋势分析,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验和双累积曲线法进行突变分析,继而利用双累积曲线法、累积量斜率变化率比较法及弹性分析法定量研究气候变化和人类活动对径流量影响的贡献率。研究表明:1968-2015年,锡林河流域年径流量呈显著下降趋势,且在1984年和2000年发生突变。基于此,将1968-1984年作为基准期、1985-2000年和2001-2015年则作为突变期;双累积曲线法得出的人类活动对径流影响贡献率介于86%~88%,与其他方法所得结果相差较大,而累积量变化率比较法则同时考虑降雨和蒸发对径流的影响,与弹性系数法得出的结果基本一致,贡献率分别介于52.44%~69.02%(1985-2000年)和42.39%~43.64%(2001-2015年)。综合而言,不同定量方法具有不同的基础和结构,使用包含多方法集成的弹性系数法相对于经验性统计法而言更可靠,且更适于锡林河流域径流量的定量响应研究。

Response of Runoff Volume Change to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Xilin River Basin

Study on the quantitative response of runoff volume to climate change and human activities can not only provide a theoretical basis for the redistribution of water resources in a drainage basin,but also a policy reference for the management of water resources.This study was based on the hydrological and meteorological data series in the Xilin River Basin,a typical grassland basin,during the period from 1968 to 2015,and the Mann-Kendall trend test was used to analyze the change trend of runoff volume.The Mann-Kendall mutation test and the double-accumulation curve method were also used.The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the change of runoff volume were quantified using the double-accumulation curve method,cumulant slope rate comparison method and elasticity analysis method.The results showed that the annual runoff volume in the Xilin River Basin was in a significant decrease trend during the period from 1968 to 2015,and its mutations occurred in 1984 and 2000 respectively.On which the period of 1968-1984 was regarded as the reference period,and the periods of 1985-2000 and 2001-2015 were the mutation periods.The results from the double-accumulation curve method revealed that the contribution rate of human activities to runoff volume varied in a range of 86%-88%,which was quite different from the results obtained by other methods.The effects of both rainfall and evaporation on runoff volume were simultanously considered in the cumulant change rate comparison,so the results estimated by which and by the elasticity coefficient method were similar,and the contribution rates varied in ranges of 52.44%-69.02%(1985-2000)and 42.39%-43.64%(2001-2015)respectively.Holistically,the foundations and structures of different quantitative methods were different,the multiple methods were integrated in the elastic coefficient method,and this method was more reliable in quantifying the response of runoff volume in the Xilin River Basin.