2011／12年度全球棉花市场形势分析及展望

2011／12年度全球棉花收获面积增长，产量再次超过2700万t。受经济恢复迟缓等影响，同期棉花消费不足2300万t。国际棉花市场供过于求，期末库存继续增加，库存消费比达到67．4％的历史高点。受全球棉花供求关系和中国棉花临时收储政策等因素影响，国际棉花价格持续下跌，国内棉价相对稳定，国内外价差拉大。全球棉花进出口贸易加大，中国棉花进口激增。展望2012／13年度，预计全球棉花植棉面积产量下降，消费状况有所好转，但仍产大于需，库存持续增加，在基本面不变的情况下，未来国际棉价仍将保持弱势震荡格局。

Analysis of Global Cotton Market Situation in 2011/12 and Its Future Prospect

Global cotton harvest area increased and the yield was more than 27 million tons again in 2011/12. Cotton consumption was less than 23 million tons during the same period due to the slow economic recovery. The glut of global cotton caused final inventory increased continuously with inventory consumption ratio at a record 67.4%. Influenced by the relation of global cotton supply and demand and China＇s cotton temporary storage policy, the price of global cotton continued to drop, the domestic price kept stable, and the gap between domestic and foreign get wider. Global cotton import and export trade increased, while China＇s cotton imports surged. Looking ahead to 2012/13, although global cotton planting area will be declined and consumption situation may be improved, production will still be more than consumption and inventory will increase continuously. It can be forecasted that global cotton price will remain weak shock pattern in the future.