我国海水养殖业生产风险的评估与分区

基于参数分布拟合法，从不同的层面对我国海水养殖主产区的生产风险进行测度，并利用系统聚类法，从单产期望损失的角度进行风险分区。结果表明，我国海水养殖总生产风险集中在减产5%~15%的区间，但就细分的养殖品种而言，重大减产(>25%)仍有可能发生。海水养殖单产波动分布呈现出宽平、尖峰、左偏、厚尾等不同形态。不同海水养殖品种的生产风险具有显著差异，减产风险从大到小依次为:鱼类>甲壳类>藻类>贝类。海南省属于单产期望损失的高风险区，而福建、山东和广西壮族自治区(省)属于低风险区。据此，建议通过调整品种结构、改善养殖技术和管理水平以及发展海水养殖保险来应对海水养殖业的生产风险。

Risk assessment and regionization of mariculture production in China

Based on the parametric distribution fitting and hierarchical clustering method, this study conducted the first quantitative assessment and regionization of the production risk of mariculture in China. The results showed that: the risk of total yield was concentrated in the reduction of 5%-15%, and a large degree of yield reduction(>25%)was likely to occur in terms of specific cultivated varieties. The distributions of yield fluctuation showed different forms, such as wide flat, peak, left skew and thick tail. The production risks of different mariculture varieties were significantly different. The ranking of production risk was as follows: fish>crustaceans>algae>shellfish. Hainan province is at high risk of expected yield loss, while Fujian, Shandong and Guangxi provinces were at low-risk. Based on these findings, it is suggested to adjust the varieties structure, improve the cultivation technology and management, and develop mariculture insurance to deal with the production risk of mariculture.