农业机械化对粮食生产的空间溢出效应——基于江苏省13个地级市的空间计量分析

为研究不同地区农业机械化发展水平对粮食生产的空间溢出效应及其作用机制，在理论分析基础上，利用2000—2016年江苏省13个地级市的面板数据，采用空间杜宾计量模型进行了实证分析。研究发现:1)江苏省粮食产量和农业机械化发展水平均在地理上呈现出空间相关性；2)江苏省农业机械化水平对粮食生产存在显著的空间溢出效应，本地区农业机械化水平提升会显著促进周边地区粮食产量增加；3)对比混合线性回归、双重固定效应模型和空间杜宾模型的估计结果显示，若不考虑空间因素则会导致农业机械化水平对粮食生产直接效应和总效应的系统性估计偏误；4)空间溢出效应在不同粮食品种之间具有异质性，江苏省玉米生产机械化空间溢出效应较高。

Spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization on grain production: Based on spatial econometric analysis of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province

In order to study the spatial spillover effect of agricultural mechanization development level on grain production in different regions and its mechanism, based on theoretical analysis and using the panel data of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2016, the spatial Durbin econometric model was used for empirical analysis. The results showed that: The grain yield and the level of agricultural mechanization in Jiangsu Province displayed geographical spatial correlation and aggregation effect. The level of agricultural mechanization in Jiangsu Province had a significant spatial spillover effect on grain yield. Comparing the estimation results of pooled ordinary linear regression, two-way fixed effect and spatial Durbin models, it showed that the systematic estimation errors of direct effect and total effect of agricultural mechanization level on grain yield occurred if the spatial factors were not considered. The spatial spillover effect was heterogeneous among different grain varieties. The spatial spillover effect of corn production mechanization in Jiangsu Province was higher.