基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC法中国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性指标选择与分析

远洋鱿钓渔业是我国远洋渔业的重要组成,该渔业极易受到环境等因素的影响。为可持续高质量发展我国远洋鱿钓渔业,本文结合脆弱性理论和方法,从气候与环境、物种、社会经济三大方面建立了我国远洋鱿钓渔业社会—生态系统脆弱性指标体系,运用决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)法、解释结构模型(ISM)法以及交叉影响矩阵相乘(MICMAC)法对影响指标及其关联性进行分析。研究表明,鱿鱼渔业资源是最核心的因素,对我国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性起决定性作用；科技投入、政策与管理、捕捞强度是最具影响力或驱动力的因素；我国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性指标可分五大类,要把重点放在关联因素、调整因子和驱动因素上,其次为依赖因素,自主因素无需过多关注。研究认为,除渔业资源外,脆弱性系统可分为四个层级,长期监控L3和L4层指标,重视L2和L3层的指标,针对性地调整L1层指标,是保持我国远洋鱿钓渔业长期健康发展的有效路径。该研究不仅能识别影响我国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性的关键因素,同时可为远洋鱿钓渔业的科学管理提供理论指导,并为脆弱性实证评估奠定基础。

Selection and analysis of vulnerability indexes of China's pelagic squid jigging fishery based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method

Pelagic squid jigging fishery is an important component of China''s pelagic fishery. For the sustainable and high-quality development of China''s pelagic squid jigging fishery, this paper established its social-ecosystem vulnerability index system from three aspects-climate and environment, species, and social economy, based on the theory of vulnerability. The DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC (Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretive Structure Modeling-Matriced Impacts Corises-multiplcation Appliance Classement) method was used to analyze the relationship between indicators and the structure of the index system. The results show that: The vulnerability indicators of China''s pelagic squid jigging fishery are linked, among which the most important are fishery resources, fishing intensity, scientific and technological investment, and policy and management; All indicators can be divided into five categories according to their roles: related factors, adjustment factors, driving factors, dependence factors and autonomous factors,among which the first three categories should be paid more attention to;Moreover, apart from fishery resources, the vulnerability system can be divided into four levels: essential causes L4, deep causes L3, transition causes L2 and neighbor causes L1. Long-term monitoring of L3 and L4 indicators, attention to L2 and L3 indicators, and targeted adjustment of L1 indicators are effective ways to maintain the long-term healthy development of pelagic squid jigging fishery in China.This study can not only identify the key factors that affect the vulnerability of pelagic squid jigging fishery and provide theoretical guidance for effective management, but also lay a foundation for the empirical assessment of vulnerability.