基于多元回归的高寒地区油菜产量预测模型

为准确预测高寒地区油菜产量提供方法支持。笔者利用1991—2015年青海省贵南县气象局观测的油菜产量资料和地面气象观测资料,对影响油菜产量的气象因子进行分析。结果表明,影响油菜产量的主要气象因子是春油菜生长期6月、7月降水量。利用多元回归分析法建立了春油菜产量预测模型。用所建立的预测模型对历年油菜产量进行回测,回代效果总体较好。

Prediction Model of Rapeseed Yield in Alpine Region: Based on Multiple Regression

The paper aims to supply method support for accurate predicting of rapeseed yield in the alpine region. By using ground meteorological observation data and the data of rapeseed yield in Guinan Meteorological Bureau from 1991 to 2015, the meteorological factors influencing the rapeseed yield were analyzed. The results showed that: the key factor affecting the rapeseed yield was precipitation of June and July. The prediction model of the rapeseed yield was established by multiple regression analysis method, and good back prediction results were achieved by using the established prediction model.