农机购置补贴的空间溢出效应研究

农机跨区流动和农机跨区作业的普遍存在，使得各省农机化发展不再各自独立，因此考虑空间相关性对科学评估省域农机购置补贴政策效果具有重要意义。本文在应用莫兰指数验证各省的机械化水平存在空间相关性的基础上，构建空间杜宾模型分析考虑空间效应情况下农机购置补贴对农机化水平的影响，评估农机购置补贴政策的空间溢出效应。结果表明，农机购置补贴实施以来，综合农业机械化水平显著提高，2017年综合农业机械化水平比2004年综合农机化水平翻了一番，由2004年的34.32%增长至2017年的66.26%。同时，由于农机全国范围内的跨区作业导致各地区农机化水平存在空间正相关性，忽略空间相关性则会高估农机购置补贴对本地农业机械化水平的影响，高估部分甚至达到实际值的1.5倍。基于此，提出继续实施和发挥好农机购置补贴政策、完善农机购置补贴政策以提高补贴资金使用效率、评估农机购置补贴对农业机械化水平影响时应考虑空间相关性，以及应继续完善促进农机跨区作业的相关政策等建议。

Study on the spatial spillover effect of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy

Cross-regional flow and operation of agricultural machinery is common and it makes the development of agricultural mechanization in each province no longer independent. Therefore, examining the spatial correlation is of great significance to scientifically evaluate the effect of provincial agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy. This paper applied the Moran index to verify the spatial correlation of the mechanization level of each province, and constructed a spatial Dubin model to analyze the impacts of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy on the level of agricultural mechanization under the consideration of spatial effects. Results show that since the implementation of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy, the comprehensive mechanization level has been improved significantly. In 2017, the level of comprehensive agricultural mechanization doubled from the level of comprehensive agricultural mechanization in 2004, from 34.32% in 2004 to 66.26% in 2017. At the same time, due to the cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery across the country, there are spatial positive correlations among the levels of agricultural mechanization among various regions. Neglecting the spatial correlation could lead to the overestimation of the impacts of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy on the level of local agricultural mechanization, and the overestimation could be 1.5 times of the actual value. In summary, this paper provides the following suggestions: 1) continuing to implement and give a full play of the subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase; 2) improving the subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase in order to improve the efficiency of subsidy; 3) considering the spatial correlation when evaluating the impacts of subsidy for agricultural machinery purchase on the level of agricultural mechanization; and 4) improving the relevant policies for promoting cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery.