基于TGARCH模型的农村居民消费指数分析

近年来,保持农业发展平衡和提高农民收入,已成为中共中央发展中国经济的政策目标之一,而农村居民消费指数也直接影响金融市场的调整。通过寻找农村居民消费指数的时间序列数据,从对其波动性进行预测的角度出发,探索时间序列波动的异方差性质,以及时间序列对正信息和负信息的差异波动模式的条件,建立门限广义自回归条件异方差模型,预测农村居民消费指数,并对其进行验证。

Rural Consumer Price Index based TGARCH Model

In recent years, stabilizing agriculture and increasing the income of farmers has become the development of one of China's economic policy orientation in the central decision-making,and rural consumer price index affected financial market to adjust.So, we can launch the quantitative modeling of volatility has become one of the core content of research on financial asset volatility, by finding namely the rural con-sumer price index, the volatility of its modeling, then from the perspective of the forecast of its volatility, considering the different variance of time series volatility properties, as well as the time series of positive information and negative information, on the basis of different wave pat-terns, with the threshold of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model, namely the TGARCH model for modeling, forecast future rural consumer price index, and verificated it.