农业科技投入对农产品价格的动态效应

采用向量自回归模型、脉冲分析和方差分解等方法,从实证的角度分析了农业科技投入对农产品价格的动态影响.结果表明,农业科技投入对农产品价格存在时滞的、长期的正向影响,农产品价格对农业科技投入立刻产生正向效应,两者之间的长期效应程度更显著、更稳定.基于这些实证研究结果,提出稳定农产品生产价格、完善以政府为主体的农业科技投入的长效机制、加大农业科技投入力度和加强农业科技队伍建设等政策建议.

Dynamic effect of agricultural science and technology investment on the agricultural products price --Based on VAR model

The study analyzed the dynamic effect of agricultural science and technology investment on the agricultural products price by using vector autoregressive model, pulse analysis and variance decomposition methods. The results showed that the investment of agricultural science and technology had a delayed and long-term positive influence on agricultural product prices, and agricultural prices immediately generated positive effects on the investment of agricultural science and technology. The long-term impact between them was more significant and more stable. Based on the empirical results, this paper put forward policy suggestions such as stabilizing the price of agricultural production, perfecting the long-term mechanism of investment in agricultural science and technology whose main body is government, increasing the agricultural investment in science and technology, strengthening the team construction of agricultural science and technology and so on.