农业人力资本水平对农业经济增长的门槛效应

目的]研究农业人力资本水平与农业经济增长间的关系,明确农业人力资本知识、健康和技能水平在影响农业经济增长过程中的阈值,从农业人力资本水平视阈下为我国农业经济发展提供理论依据.方法]分别构建以人力资本知识水平、健康水平和技能水平为门槛变量,以农业GDP、人力资本存量、物质资本存量、耕地面积和机械总动力为影响因素的门槛回归模型,并利用我国30个省(区、市)2003~2014年的数据对上述3个水平进行实证分析.结果]农业人力资本知识水平存在双门槛效应,平均受教育年限为7.46~8.36时,人力资本对农业经济影响最大;健康水平存在单门槛效应,当家庭健康支出占农村家庭支出大于5.64%时,人力资本对农业经济增长的影响最大;科技水平存在双门槛效应,当从事农业科技人员占农业从业人员比例为0.027~0.045时,人力资本对农业经济增长的影响最大.建议]各地区应通过合理渠道优化本地区农业人力资本的知识、健康和技能水平,以促进我国农业经济增长.

Threshold effect of human capital level on agricultural economic growth

Objective]In the present study, the relationship between the agricultural human capital level and agricul-tural economic growth was analyzed, threshold of knowledge, health and skill levels of agricultural human capital in the process of agricultural economic growth were researched. Then the paper provided a theoretical basis for the development of domestic agricultural economic growth from the perspective of agricultural human capital. Method]The researchers con-structed a threshold regression model which taking human capital knowledge level, human capital health level and human capital skill level as threshold variables, and taking human capital stock, physical capital stock, arable land area and total machinery power as the influencing factors. Data from 2003 to 2014 in 30 provinces(regions or municipalities) were uti-lized to conduct the empirical analysis to the above three levels . Result]There was double threshold effect in know-ledge level of agricultural human capital. When the average education year was 7.46-8.36, human capital has the greatest impact on agricultural economy. There was single threshold effect in the health level. When the family health expenditure was more than 5.64%of rural household expense, human capital has the greatest effect on growth of agricultural economy. There was double threshold effect in skill level of agricultural human capital. When the proportion of agricultural sci-tech staff to agricultural personnel was 0.027-0.045, human capital has the greatest influence on agricultural economic growth.Suggestion]Each region should promote agricultural economic growth through reasonable optimization of knowledge level , health level and skill level of agriculture human capital.