城郊农田生态环境质量预警体系研究及应用——以郑州市为例

在深刻剖析土壤污染物来源、深入理解土壤污染复杂性的基础上，根据研究地区的特殊性（城市郊区），构建了包括评价模型、预测模型、预警模型的农田生态环境质量预警体系，通过社会环境系统对土壤污染胁迫强度的变化间接反映土壤环境质量变化趋势，并运用此预警体系对郑州市郊区农田进行了动态预警实证研究，获得重要结果：（1）郑州市郊区农田生态环境质量经历了“迅速恶化-达到相对最差-趋于好转”的发展过程，这说明了社会环境系统对土壤环境胁迫强度经历了“增大-最大-趋缓”的变化过程；（2）郑州市郊区农田生态环境总体上不容乐观，必须全面掌握和控制土壤污染的影响因素，减少外部环境对农田土壤环境的胁迫作用，做好土壤污染的预警与防治工作。

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR FARMLAND ECO-ENVIRONMENT QUALITY——A CASE OF ZHENGZHOU CITY

Based on elaborate analysis of pollution sources of the soil and a better understanding of the complexity of the soil pollution,an early warning system for eco-environment quality of farmland was established in light of the particularity of the research site(suburb).This system consists of three models,namely,evaluating model,forecasting model,and early warning model.The system monitors variation of soil pollution intensity as is influenced by the socio-environmental system and predicts trends of the variation of soil environment quality.Based on this understanding,the warning system was applied as test-run to the farmland in the suburbs of Zhengzhou city.The following findings were obtained.(1) The eco-environment quality of the farmland in the suburbs of Zhengzhou has experienced a process of variation from rapid deterioration to relatively the worst and now to getting better,which implies that intensity of the stress of the socio-environment on soil environment has also followed a similar process,i.e.rising-the strongest-declining.(2) In general,the eco-environment quality of the farmland in the suburbs of Zhengzhou is not optimistic.It is,therefore,essential to exert overall control of all the factors that affect soil pollution,reduce external environment's stress on farmland soil environment,implement the work of early warning and prevention of soil pollution,and finally realize sustainable use of farmland soil.