Afforestation effects on soil carbon stocks of low productivity grassland in New Zealand

Soil carbon stock change between two major land uses in New Zealand was measured by sampling paired plots across the boundaries of low productivity grassland and forest planted pre‐1990. The national soil carbon monitoring system uses low productivity grassland as a benchmark to evaluate soil carbon stock change for other land uses. The goal was to validate earlier estimates of the effect of pre‐1990 afforestation and to reduce their level of uncertainty. We selected a set of sites to represent the national stocks of forests planted pre‐1990. Previous studies derived estimates of the land‐use effect on soil carbon for afforestation ranging from +1.6 to ?8.5 t/ha to 30 cm depth. For all estimates, the 95% confidence interval spanned zero. Our study used nine of the previous paired‐plot sites and sampled and analysed 21 new sites. The land‐use effect of change from grassland to forest planted pre‐1990 was estimated at ?17.4 t/ha. The 95% confidence interval ranged from ?10.1 to ?24.6 t/ha and did not include zero change. The result supported the soil carbon monitoring system assumption that forests planted pre‐1990 have significantly lower soil carbon stocks than the low‐productivity‐grassland standard. Evidence of stock change occurred in depth increments to 0.2 m but with no significant change for the 0.2–0.3 m increment. This suggests that the sampling depth of 0.3 m was adequate for the estimation of soil carbon stock change.