黄河流域棉花品种产量及其组分的长期预测及技术研究

黄河流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量、单株铃数、单铃重及衣分等资料为原始数据，应用谐波分析技术建立模型进行了拟合及预测研究。经拟合及精度检验，拟合指数均在0．90以上，历史符合率达100％，模型为一级精度。可预测第20轮区试参试品种的皮棉产量为1209kg·hm

Study on the Long Term Predictionand Technique of Yield and Its Components of Cotton Varieties inthe Yellow River Valley

Based on lint yield，bolls／plant，sin-gle boll weight，lint percent of the varieties thatjoined the Yellow River Valley Regional VarietyTest，according t0 the technique of harmonicanalysis，the author has built a long term predic-tion model to predict the developing trend of thenew varieties．As a result of agreement and ac-curacy examine，the agreement index is>0．90，the historical coincidence of the model reached1 00％，and its accuracy reached first-grade (good) ,respectively. Forecast the varieties thatjoined in the 20-round-regional-test, the lintyield, bolls/plant, single boll weight and lintpercent reached 1209kg · hm-2,15.16boll/plant,5. 15g and 38. 55%, respectively. This studysupplied a new method for long term forecastingof the developing trend of cotton varieties.