规模化畜禽养殖粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法研究进展

合理估算和预测畜禽粪便中有机质、氮、磷等主要污染物的浓度及产生量对于有效预防和控制畜禽粪便对环境的污染,实现其资源化和无害化利用具有重要意义。通过综述近几年国内外关于畜禽粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法的研究进展,分别对产污系数法和数学模型法进行了归纳,重点讨论了各预测方法的主要特点、预测精度及适用范围,提出了今后我国畜禽粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法需要加强的几方面内容。

Prediction Methods of Major Pollutants Production in Manure from Large-scale Livestock and Poultry Farms:A Review

s:It is significant to provide basic data for the pollution control and resource utilization by estimating the concentrations and the pro-duction of major pollutants in manure from intensive animal husbandry, such as organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus. This article re-viewed the recent advances from the research on prediction methods of pollutants yield in manure from intensive animal husbandry. Pollutant generation coefficients and prediction models, including models based on composition of dietary, physical and chemical properties and near-infrared spectrum analysis, were summarized respectively. Pollutant generation coefficients were average level of major pollutants in livestock and poultry manure, which were more precise at the macro level and were used to predict the amount of pollutants. There were three predic-tion model systems discussed. First, prediction models based on composition of dietary were less accurate than others but were more useful for farms where could get the basic data of the diet to predict rapidly the concentrations of organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus of manure for the treatment and utilization of manure. Second, prediction models based on physical and chemical properties of manure were more precise than the first one, which could provide scientific basis for developing instruments determined concentrations of organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus rapidly. Third, prediction models based on near-infrared spectrum analysis were the most accurate. Those models were likely to finish the on-line analysis of concentrations of organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus of livestock and poultry manure in the laboratory. Finally, future research on prediction methods was proposed to estimate the production of major pollutants in manure from large-scale livestock and poultry farms in China.