农业机械化与农民增收关系的交互动态响应分析——基于吉林省统计核算数据

为探究农业机械化发展与农民增收之间的关系,以吉林省1998—2018年的时间序列数据为例,通过灰色关联分析和构建VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分别探讨农业机械化与农民增收之间的关系。结果表明:农业机械化发展与农民人均纯收入之间的灰色关联度为0.8345,关系比较密切;吉林省农业机械化发展与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系。从长期来看,农业机械总动力每增加1%,农民人均纯收入会上涨1.4561%;吉林省农业机械化发展与农民人均纯收入之间存在双向因果关系,两者之间相互影响,而且农业机械化发展对农民人均纯收入增长的影响程度更大。最后,为更好地促进吉林省农业机械化发展提出相关建议。

Interactive dynamic response analysis of the relationship between agricultural mechanizationand farmers income increase: Based on statistics and accounting data of Jilin Province

In order to explore the relationship between the development of agricultural mechanization and farmers income,taking the time series data of Jilin Province from 1998 to 2018 as an example,the relationship between agricultural mechanization and farmers income was discussed by using impulse response function and variance decomposition through grey correlation analysis and VAR model.The results show that:the grey correlation between the development of agricultural mechanization and the per capita net income of farmers is 0.8345,which are close.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of agricultural mechanization and the per capita net income of farmers in Jilin Province.In the long run,every 1 percent increases in the total power of agricultural machinery increases the per capita net income of farmers by 1.4561 percent.There is a two-way causal relationship between the development of agricultural mechanization and the per capita net income of farmers in Jilin Province,which affects each other,and the development of agricultural mechanization has a greater impact on the growth of per capita net income of farmers.Finally,some suggestions are put forward for the better realization of agricultural modernization in new Jilin Province.