HBV模型在隆务河流域洪水致灾临界面雨量研究中的应用

为了解和研究气候变暖背景下青海省中小河流气象灾害,减小灾害损失,本研究以隆务河流域为例,基于2001—2011年逐日气象资料、水文资料、洪水灾情资料对HBV模型进行参数率定和验证,并根据典型洪水过程对参数进行了优化,率定期、验证期NASH系数分别达到0.69、0.83,表明HBV模型在该地区有较好的适用性。同时根据流量水位数据,结合HBV模型建立了降水-流量-水位关系,得出洪水上涨时流量与水位两者的协同性通过了α=0.001的显著性检验,并研究了前期不同水位下24h隆务河流域临界面雨量的预警指标,临界雨量值随前期水位升高而减小,两者变化呈现了非线性的特征。

Application of HBV model on estimating critical rainfall of flood disaster in Longwu River

Under the background of global warming,research on the meteorology disasters of small and middle rivers in Qinghai Province can help us conduct disaster forecast and loss assessment.A case study of Longwu River Basin indicated that HBV model well simulated the process of flood response to rainfall after model calibration by using daily meteorological and hydrological data for the period of 2001-2011,while the NASH reached 0.69 and 0.83 in verification period and calibrated period.The model combined with stage-discharge relationship was then used to calculate the dynamic critical rainfall over the Longwu River sub-region,and the high correlativity of runoff and water levels was discovered.The critical rainfall decreases with the increase in former water level.The variation of critical rainfall with different former water level showed significant nonlinear response characteristics in order to reduce losses caused by flooding disasters.