基于SOTER的中国耕地后备资源自然质量适宜性评价

耕地后备资源适宜性评价能够为保证粮食安全而进行的耕地后备资源合理开发利用提供科学依据。该文以1︰100万SOTER数据库为基础，将全国的耕地后备资源作为评价对象，选取了气候、地形和土壤3个方面的9个评价因子，采用模糊隶属度函数、层次分析法和专家打分的方法进行评价因子模糊化处理和权重的确定。利用极限条件和综合指数模型相结合的方法，进行全国耕地后备资源自然质量适宜性评价。评价结果表明：全国有56.6万km2耕地后备资源具有不同适宜程度的自然质量，其中，一等级的占15.9%，二等级的占19.5%，三等级的占25.8%，四等级的占19.1%，五等级的占19.7%；全国的耕地后备资源开发可以重点关注黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、陕西、河北、贵州、广西、山东和江西等省；最主要的限制因子具有区域分布特征，并随着适宜等级的降低，由土壤条件逐渐转变为气候和地形条件；模糊函数以及极限条件和综合指数模型相结合的评价方法能够有效提高评价结果的合理性。

Physical suitability evaluation of reserve resources of cultivated land in China based on SOTER

Physical suitability evaluation of reserve resources of cultivated land provides a scientific basis for reasonable exploitation and utilization of these lands aiming to ensure food supplies of China. Taking the whole reserve resources of cultivated land in China as the evaluation object based on 1:1000 000 scale SOTER of China, nine factors of climate, landform and soil were adopted, fuzzy analysis combined with the Delphi method were used to quantify the membership functions of the selected factors and the weight contributions of individual factors were determined using the Delphi method and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Physical suitability indices of each evaluation unit were calculated by using the combination method of critical conditions with integrated index model, and then the suitability grades were classified. Evaluation results showed that about 56.6×104 km2 reserve resources of cultivated land had suitable physical quality, among which grade 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 accounted for 15.9%, 19.5%, 25.8%, 19.1% and 19.7%, respectively. Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi. Hebei, Guizhou, Guangxi, Shandong and Jiangxi provinces could be the main areas for exploitation of reserve resources of cultivated land. With the decrease of suitability grade of reserve resources of cultivated land, the most serious limited factor changed from soil condition to climate and landform conditions. Fuzzy functions and the combination of critical conditions with integrated index model can improve effectively the rationality of evaluation result.