房地产价格、流动性关系的实证分析与中央银行政策选择

近年来，在我国流动性充裕的同时，房地产价格也屡创新高。鉴于中经网数据库尚未更新至2012年，选用2005—2011年M2与M1之差季度数据作为流动性指标，将收入作为控制变量，研究流动性对房地产价格的长短期影响。结论表明房地产价格与流动性之间确实存在长期均衡关系，即流动性充裕推动了房地产价格上涨。在短期，外生冲击导致房价偏离长期均衡趋势时，系统存在的调整功能会使房地产价格最终恢复到长期均衡。最后，就如何进行流动性管理作简要评判。

An Empirical Analysis of Real Estate Price, Liquidity and Central Bank Policy Options

In recent years, the authors researched the influence of liquidity on real estate price in short and long run by choosing the seasonal difference between M2 and M1 from 2005 to 2011 as liquidity indicator and using income as control variable. The conclusion reveals that there is equilibrium between real estate price and liquidity in the long term, that is to say, the ample liquidity promotes real estate price to go up. In the short term, if exogenous shocks cause prices to deviate from the trend in long run equilibrium, adjustment in the system will cause real estate prices to return to the long run one eventually. At last, this paper makes some comment on how to manage liquidity.