西辽河流域玉米气候生产潜力变化分析

研究玉米气候生产潜力可以正确辨识与评价影响玉米产量的光、热、水等自然资源条件,对挖掘玉米的产量潜力具有重要意义。基于西辽河流域1985—2015年气象站点逐日观测资料,利用GAEZ 3.0模型,分析西辽河流域气候变化特征和玉米气候生产潜力,探讨影响玉米气候生产潜力变化的主要因子。结果表明,1985—2015年西辽河流域玉米生育期气候呈现温度升高、降水减少的"暖干化"趋势。1985—2015年西辽河流域光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力分别为12.52~13.40 t/hm2和2.41~7.05 t/hm2,前者表现为轻微变化,后者呈现波动变化的特征。西辽河流域光温生产潜力呈现由北向南逐渐增加的趋势,气候生产潜力空间差异显著,2015年高值区分布在流域东北部的通辽等地。影响西辽河流域玉米气候生产潜力变化的首要因子是水分条件,灌溉水平提升是提高西辽河流域玉米产量的有效途径,升温对流域气候生产潜力变化的影响相对较小。

Analysis of corn climatic potential productivity change in the West Liao River Basin

It is important to study the climatic potential productivity of corn through the evaluation of the natural resource situation of corn production, including light, heat, and water. Based on the daily weather data from the meteorological stations during 1985-2015 of the West Liao River Basin, and applying the GAEZ 3.0 model, this paper analyzed the climatic characteristic and corn climatic potential productivity during the past 30 years, and evaluated the main climatic factors influencing corn potential yield of the West Liao River Basin. Results show that the temperature of corn growth period was increasing but the precipitation was decreasing during 1985-2015. The light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) was 12.52-13.40 t/hm2 and climatic potential productivity (CPP) was 2.41-7.05 t/hm2 during 1985-2015. LTPP varied slightly during 1985-2015 while climatic CPP was in fluctuation. The spatial difference of corn potential yield was obvious: the average annual variation of LTPP was higher in the southern West Liao River Basin than that in the northern West Liao River Basin, and the high value of CPP was located in the northeast region of West Liao River Basin. Precipitation was the top contributor of corn CPP in the West Liao River Basin. In conclusion, the expansion of irrigation area was an effective way in corn production growth, while the influence of temperature to CPP was relatively weak.