基于MaxEnt模型和GIS空间技术对大熊猫在岷山地区的时空变化分析及预测

大熊猫是国家Ⅰ级保护野生动物，是全世界珍稀动物的旗舰保护物种。经过历史环境的不断演变，野生大熊猫不仅仅在食性上由食肉转变为食竹，而且其个体形态、行为和生理等方面也有一定改变。由于大熊猫种群数量的稀少和习性的改变，相关保护工作和科学研究更具意义。近年来，在全球气候变化的大背景下，人类制定科学的保护计划来减轻大熊猫生境破碎化。基于大熊猫繁殖生境分布较为破碎和大熊猫种群数量较少，本研究从生态学角度研究大熊猫与环境之间的关系。通过MaxEnt模型和GIS空间技术对岷山地区大熊猫栖息地的时空变化分析及21世纪50、70年代栖息地范围预测，揭示大熊猫分布区与气候环境因素、坡度、植被和海拔等因素的相关性。结果表明，受试者操作特征曲线面积均超过0.9，显示模型建立准确性“极好”，且都具有统计学意义。野生大熊猫在岷山地区的适宜栖息地集中在中低海拔（2 500~3 000 m）、年平均温度（6~7℃）适宜、降水量（800 mm）丰富的温性针叶林和常绿阔叶林。野生大熊猫分布的主要影响因素为BIO15，并且大熊猫生境最适宜生存的区域在岷山片区明显向南偏移。从时间和空间的角度，对岷山片区大熊猫适宜生境进行动态分析，预测出不同情景下未来最适宜生存区域，为岷山片区内的自然保护地分布及管理提供科学信息。

Analysis and Prediction of Temporal and Spatial Changes of Giant Pandas in the Area of Minshan Moutains Based on MaxEnt Model and GIS Spatial Technology

Ailuropoda melanoleuca is a first-class national protected wild animal and also the flagship protected species of rare animals all over the world.With the continuous evolution of historical environment,wild giant pandas not only change from eating meat to eating bamboo,but also have some changes in their individual morphology,behavior and physiology.Because of the scarcity of giant panda population and the change of its habits,relevant conservation work and scientific research are more meaningful.In recent years,under the background of global climate change,human beings have made scientific protection plans to reduce the habitat fragmentation of giant pandas.Because the breeding habitat of giant pandas is fragmented and the population of giant pandas is small,this paper studied the relationship between giant pandas and the environment from an ecological point of view.By using MaxEnt model method and GIS spatial technology,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of giant panda habitat in the area of Minshan Mountains and forecasted the habitat range in 2050s and 2070s,which showed that the distribution of giant pandas was related to climate and environmental factors,slope,vegetation and altitude.The results showed that the area of operation characteristic curves of all subjects exceeded 0.9,which showed that the accuracy of establishing the model was “excellent” and had statistical significance.The suitable habitat of wild giant pandas in the area of Minshan Mountains was concentrated in temperate coniferous forest and evergreen broad-leaved forest with moderate and low altitude (2 500-3 000 m),suitable annual average temperature (6℃-7℃) and abundant precipitation (800 mm).The main factor affecting the distribution of wild giant pandas was BIO15,and the most suitable habitat for giant pandas was obviously shifted southward in the area of Minshan Mountains.From the perspective of time and space,this paper made a dynamic analysis of the suitable habitat of giant pandas in the area of Minshan Mountains,and predicted the most suitable living areas in the future under different scenarios,to provide scientific information for the distribution and management of nature reserves in the area of Minshan Mountains.