基于改进CA-Markov模型的滹沱河流域山区段土地利用变化模拟及预测

以滹沱河流域山区段为研究区域，基于2000、2005、2010年Landsat ETM影像和2015年Landsat OLI影像数据，获取土地利用类型空间分布数据，应用Logistic方法改进的CA-Markov模型对2020、2025年研究区的土地利用格局进行预测和模拟。结果表明:1）2000-2015年，整个研究区以草地为主，而且面积占比呈现不断下降趋势，由41.31%下降至41.07%；建设用地面积增加最快且增速呈现先上升后下降的趋势，土地利用动态度由1.33%增至1.84%后又降至1.64%；耕地和林地面积减少；而未利用地和水域基本保持稳定的趋势；2）2020、2025年耕地面积较2010-2015年有持续增加趋势，土地利用动态度由0.01%上升到0.05%，建设用地面积持续增加但速率下降，林地、草地面积继续减少，林地存在一定程度的退化现象，水域和未利用地面积会出现小幅上升趋势。林业部门应加强对林地资源的管理和保护，政府应加大对废弃工矿用地及村庄的整理复垦力度，补充耕地和林、草地数量，统筹推进山水田林湖草的综合治理，实现区域的可持续发展。

Changes and Predictions of Land Use in Mountain Section of the Hutuo River Basin Based on Improved CA-Markov Model

Taking the mountainous section of the Hutuo River Basin as the research area,based on the Landsat ETM images in 2000,2005,2010 and Landsat OLI image in 2015,spatial data of land use type were acquired.Then,CA-Markov model improved by Logistic method was used to forecast and simulate the land use pattern of the research area in 2020 and 2025.The results showed that 1) from 2000 to 2015,the research area was dominated by grassland,and the area proportion showed a trend of continuous decline,from 41.31% to 41.07%.The construction land increased mostly,whose growth rate first rose and then declined.The dynamic degree increased from 1.33% to 1.84% and then decreasedto 1.64%.The area of farmland and forest land decreased.The area of unused land and water body remained stable.2) It was predicted that the farmland during 2020-2025 would increase continuously,and the dynamic degree would increase from 0.01% to 0.05%; the demand of construction land would continuously increase with falling rate.The area of forest land and grassland would continuously decrease.The forest would degrade with certain degree.There would be a slight upward trend in the area of water body and unused land.The local forestry authorities should strengthen the management and protection of forest resources.The government should strengthen the remediation andreclamation of abandoned industrial and mining land and relocate villages for supplement the farmland forest and grassland.The government should promote the comprehensive management of regional landscape,fields,forests,lakes and grasses to realize regional sustainable development.