| 越冬代菜粉蝶成虫发生的预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶艺林.越冬代菜粉蝶成虫发生的预测模型[J].江西农业学报,2007,19(8):44-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶艺林 |
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| 作者单位： | 景德镇高等专科学校,江西,景德镇,333000 |
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| 摘 要： | 在室内15、18、22和28℃的恒温条件下,对菜粉蝶越冬蛹冬后发育起点温度和有效积温进行了研究,得到发育速率y与温度x之间的直线回归方程y=-0.051884+0.007123x,计算出菜粉蝶越冬幼虫滞育后发育的起点温度和有效积温分别为7.28(±0.3)℃和140.24(±10.4)d.℃。在自然条件下,越冬蛹在3月初开始羽化为成虫,4月中下旬羽化结束,50%成虫羽化的高峰期出现在高于发育起点7.28℃的总有效积温达到136.46d.℃。应用累积羽化率与有效积温的关系,建立了菜粉蝶越冬蛹累积羽化百分率Y与有效积温x间的Logistic回归模型Y=100/{1+exp-0.031541(x-136.46)]}。
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| 关 键 词： | 菜粉蝶 Logistic预测模型 有效积温 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8581（2007）08-0044-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-06-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年6月15日 |
Forecasting Model of Over-wintering Generation Adult Emergence of Pieris rapae |
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| YE Yi-lin.Forecasting Model of Over-wintering Generation Adult Emergence of Pieris rapae[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi,2007,19(8):44-45. |
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| Authors: | YE Yi-lin |
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| Abstract: | The threshold temperature and effective accumulated temperature for over-wintering pupae development of Pieris rapae were studied by exposing pupae to different constant temperatures(15,18,22 and 28℃).The linear regression formula of growth rate y and temperature x was y=-0.051884+0.007123x.For over-wintering generation larvae development,7.28℃ and 140.24±10.4 d·℃ was estimated as the threshold and effective accumulative temperature.Under natural conditions,adults occurred from the early March to the end of April,50% pupae emerged after accumulation of a mean sum of 136.46d·℃ above the threshold of 7.28℃.Using the correlation between the adult eclosion percentage and effective accumulate temperature,a logistic regressive model:Y=100/1+exp(-0.031541(x-136.46))] was established. |
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| Keywords: | Pieris rapae Logistic forecasting model Effective accumulated temperature |
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