塔里木盆地南缘绿洲耕地动态变化驱动力定量研究——以新疆和田地区为例

耕地减少是全国耕地变化的基本趋势.新疆和田地区位于塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘,属温带大陆性干旱沙漠气候,全部社会经济活动都集中在有限的绿洲内部,如何在保持经济发展、提高人民生活水平的基础上保护有限的耕地资源,是关系到该地区和谐以及可持续发展的重要问题.根据和田地区现有的统计资料,分析了该地区50余年以来耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异及驱动因子,结果表明:经济发展、社会系统压力和农业科技进步是影响和田地区耕地数量变化的三类因素,并用主成分分析,多元线性回归分析对耕地面积变化的驱动力进行了定量分析.

Quantitative Studies on the Driving Force of Dynamic Changes of the Arable land in the Southern Area of Tarim Basin --With the Case of Hotan Area in Xinjiang

The reduction of cultivated land is a primary tendency in the whole China.Hotan Area is located in the south part of Tarim Basin,and belongs to the extremely arid desert climate.All social-economic activities are restricted by the narrow and small oasis area.In order to keep a sustainable economy development,protecting the arable land is very important in this situation.According to the statistical and survey data at provincial and county levels,trend of cultivated land change and its driving forces in Hotan Area during the last 54 years were discussed in this paper.