基于AVSWAT丰乐河流域水文预测

运用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)分布式水文模型丰乐河流域降雨、径流进行了预测。按不同的土壤和土地利用类型将整个流域划分成38个子流域和137个具有相似水文特征的水文响应单元。选用2000-2003年桃溪水文站降水观测资料对模型灵敏度较高水文参数进行了校核与检验，率定结果显示模型模拟值与实测值拟合精度较高，表明模型可以应用于流域水文模拟预测。通过AVSWAT2000与气象预测模型的集成预测了流域水文风险预测和常规预测，推求得到流域典型年及常规年降水、径流年内月分布过程，为流域水资源管理提供了依据。该预测方法是对分布式水文模型集成化研究的一次新尝试，对今后的进一步研究具有积极意义。

Hydrological Forecasting of Fengle River Watershed Based on AVSWAT Model

This paper forecasts precipitation and runoff of Fengle River Watershed with a distributed hydrological model -SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Based on different soil types and land use classifications in the catchment, AVSWAT2000 model divide the watershed into 38 subbasins and 131HRUs (Hydrological Response Units), each of which is comprised of unique hydrological characteristic. With precipitation gauging materials of Taoxi hydrological station in 2000-2003, the more sensitive hydrology factors were calibrated, satisfactory simulation results were obtained with the highly fitting accuracy, which suggests an excellent modeling performance for hydrology simulation and prediction of the study basin. By the integration of meteorological forecasting model with AVSWAT2000, risk and normal hydrological processing was forecasted. Monthly distribution of precipitation and runoff in typical and normal years was detected, which offers reference for water resources management of basin. This perdition method is a primary trial to the distributed model integration studying, and has active significance to further study.