Quantifying production potentials of winter wheat in the North China Plain |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China;2. Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research Center, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;1. College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China;2. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, Zaragoza 50059, Spain;3. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;4. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Vantaa FIN-01370, Finland;5. Department of Geography, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt;1. State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology in Arid Areas, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;2. Key Laboratory of Plant Nutrition and Agri-environment in Northwest China, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;1. College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;2. The UWA Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, WA, Australia;1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, People’s Republic of China;2. Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Riley-Robb Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA;1. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China;2. Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA;4. Deltares USA Inc., Silver Spring, MD, USA |
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| Abstract: | The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the major winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) producing areas in China. Current wheat yields in the NCP stabilize around 5 Mg ha−1 while the demand for wheat in China is growing due to the increase in population and the change in diet. Since options for area expansion of winter wheat are limited, the production per unit of area need to be increased. The objective of this study is to quantify the production potential of winter wheat in the NCP taking into account the spatial and temporal variability caused by climate. We use a calibrated crop growth simulation model to quantify wheat yields for potential and water-limited production situations using 40 years of weather data from 32 meteorological stations in the NCP. Simulation results are linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) facilitating their presentation and contributing to the identification of hotspots for interventions aimed at yield improvements. In the northern part of the NCP, average simulated potential yields of winter wheat go up to 9.7 Mg ha−1, while average water-limited yields only reach 3 Mg ha−1. In the southern part of the NCP, both average potential and water-limited yields are about 7.5 Mg ha−1. Rainfall is the limiting factor to winter wheat yields in the northern part of the NCP, while in the southern part, the joint effect of low radiation and high temperature are major limiting factors. Temporal variation in potential yields throughout the NCP is low in contrast with the temporal variation in water-limited yields, which is especially great in the northern part. The study calls for the collection of location-specific and disaggregated irrigated and rainfed wheat yield statistics in the NCP facilitating the identification of hotspots for improvement of current wheat yields. |
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