东辽河流域吉林省境内的径流模拟研究

以东辽河吉林省境内河段为研究对象，采用SWAT分布式水文模型对东辽河泉太水文站进行径流模拟，模型采用2006—2008年实测的逐月径流资料进行参数的率定，并以2009—2010年为模型的验证期，分析对水文过程影响较大的因素、模型的模拟精度及对研究区的适用性。结果表明:泉太水文站率定期与验证期径流的模拟值与实测值总体上拟合较好，率定期与验证期径流模拟的相关系数（R²）均大于0.6，Nash-Suttclife效率系数（E_ns）均大于0.75，相对误差（R）均小于30%。验证期的月径流模拟相对误差较率定期小，且相关系数R²、效率系数均大于0.9，降雨是径流的重要影响因素，月径流模拟值与年内的降雨过程存在较好的正相关性，且率定期相关性较验证期相关性大。应用率定后的参数在SWAT模型中进行径流模拟的结果较好，精度较高。将SWAT模型应用于东辽河吉林省段的径流过程模拟，具有较强的适用性。

Study on Runoff Simulation in Dongliao River Basin of Jilin Province

The Dongliao River in Jilin Province was taken as a case study area. Runoff simulation of the Quantai hydrological station was carried out with SWAT, a distributed hydrological model. In order to analyze the factors influencing hydrological process, the accuracy of runoff process simulation and the model applicability for the study area, parameters were calibrated by observed monthly runoff data from 2006 to 2008, and validated from 2009 to 2010. The results showed that during the calibration and validation period, the simulation results of the Quantai hydrological station were overall credible and consistent with the measured runoff, and the coefficients of determination (R²) were both greater than 0.6, and Nash-Suttclife efficiency factors (E_ns) were both greater than 0.75, as well as the relative errors (R) were both less than 30%. During the validation, the relative error was smaller, the coefficients of determination (R²) and Nash-Suttclife efficiency factors were both greater than 0.9. Rainfall is an important factor affecting the runoff processes, a better positive correlation between the monthly runoff simulation and rainfall process was found during the calibration and validation period, while the calibration period is higher. However, the results were better and accurate with the calibrated parameters applied to the model. SWAT model exhibited the strong applicability when it was applied to simulate the runoff process of Dongliao River in Jilin Province.