基于生态足迹模型的河北省土地利用总体规划实施评价

为了证实河北省土地利用总体规划（2006—2020年）确定的土地利用结构调控指标是否科学与合理，根据1999—2008年的统计数据，运用改进的生态足迹模型计算并预测河北省2010年、2020年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力，将预测结果与河北省土地利用总体规划（2006—2020年）确定的土地利用结构调整目标测算的人均生态承载力进行比较。结果表明:（1）河北省人均生态足迹1999—2008年共增加0.218 1 hm²，增长率达到32.18%，人均生态承载力共增加0.019 8 hm²，增长幅度为28.09%，人均生态赤字由2006年增长到最大值0.450 2 hm² 后回落至2008年的0.418 8 hm²，表明河北省正朝着降低生态赤字，提高生态承载力的方向进行。（2）根据预测值与规划确定值相比较可知，2010年人均生态承载力的实际发展将会比规划预期增加0.16%，人均生态赤字减少0.18%，2020年人均生态承载力的实际发展将会比规划预期增加18.41%，人均生态赤字减少6.29%，说明本轮规划的预计生态供给均可实现。河北省土地利用总体规划（2006—2020年）的实施将会降低人均生态赤字，体现了规划确定的土地利用结构调控指标的科学与合理性，一定程度上遏制了土地生态环境的恶化趋势，促使生态环境向有利的方向发展。

Implementation Evaluation of the General Land Use Planning of Hebei Province Based on the Ecological Footprint Model

This research purpose is to confirm whether the adjustment goal of land-use structure determined by Hebei general land use planning (2006—2020) is scientific and reasonable. According to the statistical data from 1999 to 2008, optimized model of ecological footprint was used to calculate and predict the ecological footprint per capita and the current ecological carrying capacity per capita of Hebei Province in 2010 and 2020.The prediction results were compared with the per capita ecological carrying capacity which was calculated by land use structure adjustment target of Hebei general land use planning (2006—2020).The data from 1999 to 2008 in Hebei Province showed that: (1) the per capita ecological footprint had totally increased 0.218 1 hm² and the growth rate reached up to 32.18%, the per capita ecological carrying capacity increased 0.019 8 hm² and the growth amplitude reached to 28.09 %, the per capita ecological deficit rose to a maximum of 0.450 hm² in 2006 and fell to 0.418 8 hm² in 2008, In short, the ecological deficit will be reducing and the ecological carrying capacity will be improving in Hebei Province in the future; (2) according to the forecast value and the planning phase to determine the value of the comparison, the per capita ecological carrying capacity development in 2010 will increase by 0.16% compared with the expected plan, the per capita ecological deficit decreased 0.18%, the per capita ecological carrying capacity of the actual development will increase 18.41% in 2020 compared to the expected planned, the per capita ecological deficit reduction is 6.29%, indicating that the current round of planning eco-expected supply can be realized. The implementation of Hebei general land use planning (2006—2020) will reduce the per capita ecological deficit what embodies science and rationality of land use structure adjustment target. It presented the trend of the land ecological environment deterioration in some degree and promoted the ecological environment development to the favorable direction.