典型草原区水资源承载能力评价方法研究

水资源承载能力评价是典型草原区生态系统得以维持的关键因素，也是牧区社会经济可持续发展的必要保障。该文提出了基于模糊评价的指标体系法、承载能力计算模型、GIS方法三种典型草原区水资源承载能力评价方法，以达茂旗为研究区域，对2009年水资源承载能力进行了评价与分析。在指标体系法中，因为人口密度较低、人口增长得到有效控制，故全旗水资源社会承载能力较强；北部的巴音花镇及满都拉镇因工业较少，其水资源承载能力经济层为承载一般的状态；在承载能力计算模型中，人口、工农业分布密集的百灵庙镇人口与经济均存在超载的情况，全旗只有巴音花镇和满都拉镇生态承载能力有富余；在基于GIS的水资源承载能力评价中，达茂旗中南部的百灵庙镇、乌克镇、石宝镇等地水资源承载能力均处于较弱甚至弱的状态，北部的巴音花镇、满都拉镇水资源承载能力则较强。三种方法的评价结果均表明达茂旗水资源承载能力较弱。

Water Resource Carrying Capacity Evaluation Method in Typical Grassland

The research of water resource carrying capacity is not only the key factor to support the health of ecology in typical grassland area, but also the necessary guarantee for the sustainable development of society and economy in pastoral area. In this paper, three methods, which are index system based on fuzzy analyzing, carrying capacity calculation model and GIS method, have been used to evaluate the present situation of water resource carrying capacity in Damao County in 2009. The results of index system method show that the water resource carrying capacity of Damao County for society system is at stronger level due to less population density and increasing rate, the water resource carrying capacity of Bayinhua Town and Mandula Town for economic system is at medium level. The results of carrying capacity calculation model indicate that Bailingmiao Town, which is the central of population and economy in Damao County, is in overload situation, and Bayinhau Town and Mandula Town are the only area where can support the grassland grazing activity. The results of GIS method reveal that the water resource carrying capacity of the central and southern of Damao County is much weaker than the north area. In general, the results of the three methods show that water resource carrying capacity of Damao County is weak.