中国饲料产业发展现状与市场整合及政策建议

经过三十多年的发展,饲料产业逐步成为我国支柱产业之一。近年来饲料产量不断增加,饲料企业不断发展壮大,逐渐形成了较为完善的产业体系及链条,同时也存在贸易出口不稳定等问题。本文以猪配合饲料为例,运用协整检验、误差修正模型等计量方法对全国30个省份的饲料市场整合程度进行了实证分析。研究发现,我国64对毗邻省区饲料市场都存在着长期市场整合关系,运行效率良好,其中有53对市场存在短期整合关系。导致市场短期整合效果较差的因素有:交通运输条件、信息通达度、市场主体、制度安排等。提出了加强基础设施和信息化建设,重视政策扶持,改善外部环境,走"科技兴饲"等政策建议。

Current Situation, Market Integration and Policy Suggestions for Feed Industry in China

Feed industry has been one of the important pillar industries in our country during the past 30years. Recently, the output of feed industry has been increasing, and the feed enterprises have been expanding. The feed industrial chain is coming into being, but the export of feed is unstable. Taking formulated feed of pig for example, this paper, based on co-integration test and error correction model(ECM), analyzes the market integration of 30provinces in China. The result proves the existence of long-term integration among provincial feed markets with high operating efficiency, as well as the relatively low short-term integration. Reasons vary for leading to less effective short-term integration of feed market, such as transportation conditions, information accessibility, market actors, policy arrangements. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the construction of infrastructure and information technology, strengthen the policy support, improve the external environment and promote the development of feed industry through science and technology.