万荣县冬小麦产量与气象条件的关系研究

以直线滑动平均法为主要方法,从1951—2011年万荣县冬小麦产量中分离出气象产量和趋势产量,趋势产量表明,20世纪70年代末到90年代增长迅速,但进入21世纪后产量徘徊不前。分析了气象产量与1957—2011年的平均气温、降水量和日照时数的月资料和旬资料的线性相关性,并结合1981—2011年的冬小麦发育期平均值,找出相关性明显的关键气象要素,利用逐步线性回归法建立气象产量预报方程。结果表明,影响产量的主要因素有上年9—11月、2月中下旬和上年11月上旬的降水量和上年11月下旬的日照时数。并对2012年产量进行了预报。这些可为精确估产,合理安排灌溉、小麦生育期评价以及人工增雨服务小麦生产提供可靠技术依据,特别是抓住关键期进行人工增雨将会取得明显的社会效益和经济效益。

Relationship Research between Winter Wheat Yield and Meteorological Conditions in Wanrong County

Meteorological yield and trend yield from 1951-2011 winter wheat output in Wanrong County is separated based on the linear siding average method in this paper.Trend output states a rapid growth from 70s to 90s,but in the new century the output is pacing up and down.This paper analyzed the linear correlation between meteorological yield and 1957-2011 monthly dataset and ten-day material of the average temperature,precipitation and sunshine,combined with 1981-2011 winter wheat growth period average value and found the key meteorological elements with significant correlationand using gradually linear regression method built meteorological yield predictive equation.The result states the main factors that affect yield are precipitations of last year September to November,middle and late ten days' of February and early 10 days' of November,sunshine hours last year late November,and the yield of 2012 forecasted.All the above provided reliable technical basis for reasonable arrangement of irrigation,winter wheat growth period evaluation and precipitation enhancement service,especially capturing the precipitation enhancement in critical period will get the obvious social and economic benefit.