新疆农八师垦区气候变化及对农业的影响

摘要：为了新疆农八师垦区农业生产的可持续发展和防灾减灾提供参考，使用该地区气象资料，应用气候倾向率、气候趋势系数等统计方法分析气候变化的同时探讨气候变暖对农业生产的影响。结果表明：气温升高趋势明显，年平均气温倾向率为0.349 ℃/10a，其中冬半年倾向率为0.446 ℃/10a，夏半年倾向率为0.293 ℃/10a；降水量存在增加趋势，年降水量倾向率为15.227 mm/10a，其中作物生长季平均降水量倾向率为9.186 mm/10a，冬季降水量倾向率为4.716 mm/10a；日照时数有微弱增加趋势，年日照总量倾向率为24.861 h/10a，作物生长季日照时数倾向率为24.035 h/10a；春季倾向率为18.141 h/10a。气候变暖增加了该地区热量资源使棉花栽培界限西进北移扩大了种植面积，同时极端气候事件的不稳定性及病虫害加重现状增加了农业对防灾的投入，所以掌握气候变化规律，适应气候变化调整农业生产，因势利导趋利避害是丰产丰收的保障。

Climate change and Its Effect on agriculturalin Xinjiang NongBaShi Reclamation Area

The paper used climate data of Nongbashi reclamation area in Xinjiang to analysis climate change and its effect on agricultural production by some statistical means such as application climate trend rate, climate coefficient and so on. It provided reference for sustainable development and disaster prevention and reduction. The results showed that： the temperature was raised obviously and the annual temperature tendency ratio is 0.349℃ in 10 years on average. In the later year, the tendency ratio is 0.446℃ in 10 years and in the earlier year is 0.293℃ in 10 years. Rain tended to increase and annual rain tendency ratio is 15.227 mm in 10 years, seasonal rain tendency ratio of crops＇ grown is 9.186 mm in 10 years and in winter the rain tendency ratio is 4.716 mm in 10 years; the sunshine hours tended to increase slightly, the average annual sunshine duration tendency ratio is 24.861 h in 10 years and the seasonal sunshine duration tendency ratio of crops＇ grown is 24.035 h in 10 years; In summer is 18.141 h in 10 years. Climate warming has increased heat energy in this area and enlarged the plant area of cotton cultivation from west and north. And instability of extreme climate incident and aggravated insect diseases have increased income of disaster prevention for agriculture. Therefore, grasping the rules of climate change, adapt climate change to adjust agricultural production, and lead it to a better way are the bases of good harvest.