吉林通化地区玉米螟发生程度气象等级预测预报模型的建立

为了对玉米螟发生程度进行预测,以便对玉米螟虫害更好地进行防治,利用吉林省通化市1981—2007年玉米螟虫害观测数据和气象资料,通过对比分析,确定与玉米螟灾情关系密切的气象因子。将玉米螟发生程度分为3级:轻度发生、中度发生、重度发生,同时以最大概括率的原则将相关的气象因子也划分为3级,并将预报量和预报因子各等级合理赋值,通过统计手段建立了通化市玉米螟发生程度气象等级预测预报模型。模型回报检验确率达81.5%,试报检验效果也较好,预报模型具有一定的可用性,可为通化市玉米螟的防治工作提供一定的科学依据。另外,通过对观测数据的分析,初步证明了通化市冬季低温对越冬幼虫死亡率无明显影响,同时在统计中发现,越冬前后幼虫的虫口密度与通化市玉米螟发生程度关系不是很密切。

The Establishment of Meteorological Forecast Model for the Occurrence Degree of Corn Borer in Tonghua, Jilin

In order to forecast the occurrence degree of corn borer, so as to gain a better prevention and treatment of corn borer, based on the observation data of corn borer in Tonghua from 1981-2007 , the author finally found out the meteorological factors which were closely related to the occurrence degree of corn borer. The author divided the occurrence degree of corn borer into three grades, namely mild, moderate and severe occurrence, and meantime divided the related meteorological factors into three degrees, based on the maximum correlation coefficient principle, and assign values to prediction and vary grades of prediction factors, and by statistic means the author created the meteorological forecast model for the occurrence degree of corn borer in Tonghua City. The accurate rate of the model testing was 81.5%, and the forecast testing was very well, too. The forecast model had a certain level of usability. And it could provide scientific evidence for the corn borer prevention and treatment work in Tonghua. At the same time, through the observation data, it proved that the low temperature of winter in Tonghua had no effects on the death rate of the overwintering larvae and the density of overwintering larvae was little related to the occurrence degree of the corn borer in Tonghua City.