气候变化对忻州玉米气象产量的影响

利用河曲、五寨、五台、繁峙、忻府区5个气候代表站1981—2009年玉米生长期间日照时数、平均气温、降水量、≥10℃积温等农业气象资料及玉米产量资料,应用滑动平均、线性倾向估计和多元回归等统计方法,建立了气象要素与玉米气象产量的多元回归模型。结果表明,近29 a,5个县(区)的降水量与玉米气象产量呈正相关关系;日照时数、平均气温与玉米气象产量五寨、五台和河曲呈正相关关系,繁峙和忻府区呈负相关关系;≥10℃积温河曲、五台和忻府区与玉米气象产量呈正相关关系,五寨和繁峙呈负相关关系。不同县(区)各气象要素影响的程度不同,5个县(区)对玉米气象产量影响最大的均为平均气温;五寨、河曲和繁峙对玉米气象产量影响排第2位的为年降水量;五台对玉米气象产量影响排第2位的为日照时数,忻府区对玉米气象影响排第2位的为≥10℃积温。

Impact of Climate Change to Corn Yield in Xinzhou City

Based on meteorological data of sunshine hours,temperature,precipitation and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and corn yield data of 5 counties Hequ,Wuzhai,Wutai,Fanshi and Xinfu,in Xinzhou city,representing 5 climate features,from 1976 to 2009 and using moving average,linear trend estimation and multiple regression methods,Variation trend over the years of the above meteorological elements and the relation between corn yield and the above meteorological elements were analyzed and multiple regression models of corn meteorological yield and the above meteorological elements were established.The results show:(1)Corn meteorological yield has positive correlation with precipitation in the above 5 regions from 1981 to 2009,but relations between corn meteorological yield and other meteorological elements are inconsistent.In Wuzhai,Wutai and Hequ,corn meteorological yield has positive correlations with sunshine hours and average temperature,but in Fanshi and Xinfu the correlations are negative.In Hequ,Wutai and Xinfu,corn meteorological yield has positive correlation with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature,but in Wuzhai and Fashi,the correlation is negative.(2)The impact of each element to corn meteorological yield is different in each county,the greatest impact comes from temperature in all above 5 counties.In Wuzhai,Hequ and Fanshi the impact of the second comes from annual precipitation,in Wutai and Xinfu the impact of the second comes from sunshine hours.