粮食产量变化趋势的物元分析

利用灰色关联分析,挑选出与粮食产量关系密切的物理因子,可对粮食产量影响因子做出较准确的排序。以浙江省为例,利用前期的影响因子,对其粮食产量的变化趋势进行了物元分析。结果表明:在1995~2009年的15 a当中,浙江省粮食年产量的计算等级与实际等级符合的年份为13 a,1998年和2005年的计算等级和实际等级虽然情况不符合,但是也只是相差一个等级,计算结果理想。可以利用物元分析对未来粮食产量变化做出较准确的预测。

The Matter Element Analysis for the Variation Trend of Grain Yield

Using gray relational analysis method to select the physical factors which relate to the grain yield closely and rank the order of them.The factors in earlier stage were used to conduct the matter element analysis for the variation trend of grain yield in Zhejiang province.The results showed that among 15 a(1995~2009),the calculated level of annual grain yield had 13 a in accordance with actual level;the calculated level of grain yield in 1998 and 2005 was not in accordance with actual level,but there was only one level between them.Therefore,the matter element analysis can forecast the future variation trend of grain yield with a fair degree of accuracy.