黑龙江省降水变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响研究

基于黑龙江省36个气象站的降水量数据和12个地级市及1个地区的农业相关数据,采用改进的MannKendall检验法,通过计算年降水量和季节降水量的趋势检验统计量Z值,揭示了研究区降水量的变化趋势,进而分析了农业旱涝灾害的空间分布。结果表明,黑龙江省大部分地区冬、春季节降水量呈现上升趋势,夏、秋季节降水量及年降水量均呈下降趋势。黑龙江省农业受涝灾影响大于旱灾,涝灾主要分布在黑龙江省东部的双鸭山市、鹤岗市和佳木斯市,其未来降水量的下降趋势可在一定程度上缓解涝灾产生的危害;旱灾主要分布在黑龙江省西部的齐齐哈尔地区,其未来降水量的增加趋势可在一定程度上缓解旱灾产生的危害。

Variation of Precipitation and Its Impact on Agricultural Production in Heilongjiang Province

Using precipitation data measured at 36 weather stations and agricultural production data from 13cities/region across Heilongjiang province,we calculated the Z value of annual and seasonable precipitations using the modified Mann-Kendall test method in attempts to analyze the variation of precipitation and its consequent impact on spatio-temporal distributions of drought and flood hazards.The results showed that most regions in the province see an increase in precipitation from winter to spring and a decrease from summer to autumn;the province has more flooding than droughts.Flooding occurs mainly in Shuangyashan,Hegang and Jiamusi in the Sanjiang plain,and drought occurs mainly in Qiqihar in the west of the province.