基于条件概率分布的玛纳斯河年径流序列频率分析

根据玛纳斯河1956―2006年年径流序列数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法和累积距平法对其变化趋势及突变进行了分析,通过条件概率分布法、K-S检验、OLS及AIC对其进行了拟合优度检验。结果表明,玛纳斯河年径流在1956―1995年呈现减少趋势,在1996―2006年年径流呈现增长趋势,并在1995年发生突变;最优分布的设计年径流值在各频率下均较传统频率法求得的设计年径流值增加1%~10%,条件概率分布相对于传统的水文频率计算方法得到的设计结果更有利于玛纳斯河的防洪安全及洪水资源利用。

Frequency Analysis of the Annual Runoff Series of Manas River Based on Conditional Probability Distribution

This paper analyzed the change in the runoff of Manas River basin based on the data measured from 1956 to 2006 using the Mann-Kendall mutation test and the cumulative anomaly method.The model-fitting was tested using the conditional probability distribution method,K-S test,OLS and AIC.The results showed that the annual runoff in Manas River decreased from 1956 to 1995,and then increased from 1996 to 2006;the mutated year was in 1995.The designed optimal annual runoff under different frequencies increased by 1％～ 10％,compared with that calculated using the traditional frequency method.The result calculated from the conditional probability distribution is superior to that from the traditional method in flooding control and flood-resource utilization in the Manas River.