2种降水模式对2次降水过程的对比分析

利用T639模式与日本模式的降水数值预报,对2008年7月的2次降水天气过程进行对比分析。结果发现,日本模式与T639模式的36和60h实效预报情况较好,降水落区和降水强度基本可以信任。2008年7月6日过程T639模式和日本模式东北地区的36h时效日累积降水预报除对暴雨区的位置有偏差外,降水带的落区和量级与实况较为一致;2008年7月24日过程的36和60h实效的预报效果与实况大体一致。但从2次过程的84h预报情况来看,降水落区和降水强度均有较大偏差。

The Contrast of Two Precipitation Models of Two Precipitaion Process

Using numerical prediction product of Japan mode and T639 mode rainfall for the July 2008 two rainfall weather process analysis.As indicated by the results,T639 and Japan models performed well in the 36 h and 60 h practical forecasting of"north vortex-south slot" which was the large-scale rainfall situation in summer in China,both the precipitation area and precipitation intensity were trustable.Apart from the deviations in forecasting the rainstorm area by the 36 h daily accumulated precipitation prediction of T639 and Japan models,the forecasted precipitation area and intensity were basically consistent with the actual condition,the 36 h and 60 h forecasting results of two precipitation processes happed on July 24,2008 were close to the real case.But the 84 h forecasting of both the precipitation place and intensity of the two precipitation processes showed large deviations.