| 高致病性猪繁殖与呼吸综合征传播数学模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王光煜.高致病性猪繁殖与呼吸综合征传播数学模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2011(5):2798-2800. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王光煜 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古大学数学科学学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]分析和预测高致病性猪繁殖与呼吸综合征的流行趋势。方法]将猪分为3类：易感猪S、发病猪I和退出猪R,拟合传染速率β（t）、恢复率γ（t）和病死率δ（t）的动态模型,建立该病流行的每天病猪数I（t）模型和健康猪数H（t）模型。结果]通过比较,模型的理论传染速率β（t）、恢复率γ（t）和病死率δ（t）与实际计算结果基本一致,每天病猪数I（t）模型和健康猪数H（t）模型较符合实际。结论]该数学模型可较好地预测高致病性猪繁殖与呼吸综合征的流行趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 数学模型 猪繁殖与呼吸综合征 传播 |
Studies on the Mathematical Model of Highly Pathogenic Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome |
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| WANG Guang-yu.Studies on the Mathematical Model of Highly Pathogenic Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2011(5):2798-2800. |
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| Authors: | WANG Guang-yu |
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| Institution: | WANG Guang-yu (Collage of Mathematical Sciences,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010021) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The purpose of this paper was to analyze and forecast the transmission trend of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome(HP-PRRS) by mathematical model.Method] The pigs were divided into the susceptible population,the incidence population and the removed.Dynamics model of transmission rate,recover rate and incidence rate were analyzed,and the mathematical model of HP-PRRS was established in transmission process.Result] Transmission rate β(t),recover rate γ(t) and incidence rate δ(t) was to conform to the results of the actual figures,and the mathematical model of HP-PRRS accorded with the objective law of transmission.Conclusion] This mathematical model was better used to analyze the transmission trend of HP-PRRS. |
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| Keywords: | Mathematical model Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome Transmission |
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