Bayesian Analysis of $$^{}$$Pb Dating

In studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, \(^{210}\)Pb dating is often used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the age of material at different depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of ‘unsupported’ \(^{210}\)Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of ‘supported’ \(^{210}\)Pb. Current \(^{210}\)Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and provide poor estimates of the uncertainties. Here, we develop a new model for \(^{210}\)Pb dating, where ages and values of supported and unsupported \(^{210}\)Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix \(^{210}\)Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined age estimates.