陇南山区小麦白粉病流行程度预测模型

调查分析1990~2005年陇南山区小麦白粉病发生、流行资料,发现:陇南白龙江流域为小麦白粉病常发重发生区,徽成盆地为小麦白粉病易发区,西汉水流域为小麦白粉病轻发区;小麦感病品种面积、上年秋苗平均病叶率和病田率、当年早春平均病田率、上年7、10月和当年5月平均气温、当年4月和上年7、8、11月降水量与全市春季小麦白粉病流行程度相关十分显著,上年9月到次年3月平均气温和4~8月降水量与小麦白粉病流行程度呈正相关,4~8月平均气温和9月到次年3月降水量与小麦白粉病流行程度呈反相关。由此建立的预报模型,历史拟合率可达93.75%,2006年业务应用预报准确率100%。

Prediction model of the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew in Longnan mountainous area

Based on the data of wheat powdery mildew from 1990 to 2005 in Longnan mountainous area,the analytic conclusions are as follows: there is low frequency happening of wheat powdery mildew in the Bailong River basin,Huicheng basin and western Hanshui River basin;There are obvious relationships between the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew and the area of infestation,and the percentage of seedling diseases and infestation area last autumn,and the area of infestation early this spring,and the average temperature of this May and last July and October and precipitation of this April and last July,August and November, and there are positive relationships between the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew and average temperature from last September to this March and precipitation from April to August,but there are negative relationships between the degree of epidemic wheat powdery mildew and average temperature from April to August and precipitation from last September to this March.Moreover,the historical fitting accuracy of prediction model established on the above results is 93.75%,and the percentage of prediction is 100% in 2006.Meanwhile,the preventive measure is concluded by combining with the experiment.