安徽省油菜主要发育期预报业务化模型研究

为了满足现代农业气象业务服务的需求，为各级政府决策部门和农业生产者及时、合理地开展田间管理和农业生产提供科学依据，在江苏省农科院研发的油菜发育期预报模型的基础上，利用安徽省1982~2005年甘蓝型油菜发育期资料和相对应的气象资料，运用数理统计方法，建立了安徽省油菜主要发育期区域预报模型；并依据天气预报，预测油菜开花期和成熟期。经模拟回代、试报和业务应用，结果显示：油菜开花期和成熟收获期实际观测值与模拟值的相关系数在0.8~0.9，平均绝对误差在2~3天；2006-2009年试报结果与实际值的绝对误差平均在3天左右。本研究对预测安徽省油菜的生育期进程提供了理论支持，并在2011年业务应用中效果较好，完全可以满足业务需求。

The Study on Operational Model of Rape’s Main Growth Period Prediction in Anhui Province

The aim was to meet the need of modern agricultural meteorology, and provide the scientific guidance for the government strategy and farmers ’ filed management and agricultural production. Based on prediction model of rape’s growth period which developed by Jiangsu Agricultural Academy, using Anhui ’ s Brassica napus growth stage date and meteorological date from 1982 to 2009, and the mathematical statistic method, the sectionalized prediction model of rape ’s key growth stage was established. The rape’s flowering and maturity stage were predicted according to the weather forecast. Through simulation, back substitution, prediction and operational application, the results showed that, the correlation coefficient about observed value and simulated value of rape ’ s flowering and maturity stage was between 0.8 and 0.9, and average absolute error between 2-3 days; also the prediction result was about 3 days from 2006 to 2009. This study provided theoretical support to rape ’s growth process in Anhui, and the effectiveness was good in operational application in 2011, it could completely satisfy the needs of the operational application.