Valuing Potential Benefits of Research into the Biological Control of Californian Thistle （Cirsium arvense）： A Bioeconomic Model

The present research developed a bioeconomic model for control of Californian thistle （Cirsium arvense L. Scop.） in intensive, lowland sheep pastures in New Zealand. Production costs included two control methods： herbicides and defoliation, with defoliation encompassing both physical means and biocontrol measures. The model was used to examine the economic value of a research programme into biological control of the weed, given several different future scenarios. These scenarios were high herbicide prices, a price premium for lamb raised without chemical herbicides, and development of herbicide resistance. The model results were used to estimate national impacts. If the only change in the agricultural sector was the cost of the biocontrol to the nation＇s farmers, the research programme to find an effective biocontrol agent had little economic impact. If other factors changed, such as the price of petroleum or levels of herbicide resistance in the weed. the model＇s results suggested that intensive sheep farming could grow or shrink by as much as NZ$219 million dollars over five years. In the latter case, having an alternative control method reduced potential losses and increased potential gains, resulting in a net benefit of between NZ$81 million and NZ$153 million. This work extended prior research in several ways. First. Californian thistle reproduces via root buds, which affected the modelling of weed behaviour. Secondly, the model allowed optimistation over continuous levels of weed control for two different methods. Thirdly, the model accounted for both weed control and damage to nitrogen-fixing clover from herbicide use. Finally, the research investigated optimal weed control in several different alternative future states.