相似离度的沙尘暴预报业务系统

选择1988年以来ECMWF资料齐全的沙尘暴个例,将其按区域分为全区、西部、中部、中西部以及中东部5类,再按强弱分别分为强和一般2类,建立不同的样本库。根据多年预报经验建立消空指标,对实时资料进行消空,在消空的基础上,用相似离度分析方法对ECMWF的3个场(500hPa高度场、850hPa温度场和海平面气压场)的历史资料库和实时资料进行比较,制作不同时次的沙尘暴预报。并利用VB和Fortran语言编程,建立沙尘暴预报业务系统,用人机交互的方式完成预报的制作,实现预报结果在Micaps系统下的自动显示。

The Operational System for Duststorm Forecast

The whole Inner Mongolia has been divided into 5 regions (they are whole area , west , central , middle-west ,middle-east areas of Inner Mongolia) and the historical duststorm events since 1988 ,during the periods the ECMWF data had been well collected and sorted into duststorm and severe duststorm types in order to set up different sample database. Depending on many year experiences on duststorm prediction , the throat values of excluding have been determined ,which means that if wind speed of a day does not over the value , e.g.8m/s,then it is impossible to develop a duststorm .The day will be excluded .Consulting the throat values of different elements , we exclude the actual data ,and then ,using the method of similar range degree analyze to compare the historical data to actual data of 3 element fields of the ECMWF (including 500hPa height ,850hPa temperature and sea-level pressure)to make duststorm forecast at different time level .Moreover, a duststorm forecast operational system was established by using VB and FORTRAN to compile computer programs which has human-computer interaction functions and could show the forecasts on the MICAPS automatically.