基于IPAT等式的草原资源利用与经济增长关系研究——以甘南藏族自治州草原牧区的实证为例

在概述IPAT等式及其发展模型的同时，构建了以草原资源消耗为表征的草原资源利用与经济增长的关系模型，并以甘南藏族自治州草原牧区为例，采用了3种不同方案对不同草原资源利用技术下的牧民经济行为对草原资源压力进行了实证研究。结果表明，只有当单位GDP草资源消耗年降低率高于单位GDP草资源消耗年降低、上升和不变的临界值时，才能实现确保草资源合理利用的经济内涵式增长。同时发现，甘南州草原牧区经过长期的努力，单位GDP草资源消耗年降低率多年平均值t=2.559%，与临界值tk=2.693%的差距仅为0.134%，这说明牧区对草原资源的利用有向可持续利用转变的趋势。

null

Quantitative analysis on the impacts of human activities on environment is one of the highlights in the research field of sustainable development. In this paper, the IPAT equation were introduced as well as its expanded models including ImPACT model, STIRPAT model, IPBAT model, ImPACTS model and IES model. A model about the relationship between utilization efficiency of grassland resources and economic growth was analyzed based on three different schemes in the Gannan pastoral areas in Gansu Province. The data reflected that the conditions of economic growth was the drop rate of grassland resources consumption per unit GDP satisfied to the equation t>tk (critical value). As t is closed to tk during 1985-2004 in the area (t=2.559%, tk=2.693%), the utilization ways of grassland resources are considered to be sustainable.