圩区地下水位随机模拟模型及应用

以我国大型圩区为研究对象，开发出一通用的圩区地下水位随机模拟数学模型，用以模拟圩区地下水位随时间的变化情况．论文分析了大气降水、地表蒸发等随机变量的模拟预测方法，应用随机理论及时间序列理论对上述动态因素进行动态模拟，建立了不同边界条件的圩区地下水位机模拟模型．应用MODFLOW软件进行数值分析，给出特征点处地下水位随时间的变化规律，并提出现状封闭率条件下的适宜水面率．结果表明，地下水位模拟值与实测值最大相对误差为2.38%，成果为大型圩区工程规划管理提供了决策参考．

Study on groundwater stochastic simulation model in polder and its application

A stochastic simulation mathematic model of groundwater movement in polder is developed in this article,and it can be used for the simulation of groundwater table in polder.The simulation methods for precipitation,evapo-transpiration and other stochastic variables are analyzed,and dynamic simulation is carried out for these stochastic factors through using of stochastic theories and time-series theories.Then a stochastic simulation mathematic model of groundwater movement in polder under different boundary conditions is established.Through numerical simulation using Software MODFLOW,the temporal change rules of groundwater table at characteristic spots are educed,and feasible area ratio of water surface is put forward.The results indicate that the maximal relative error between simulation values and observation data of groundwater table is 2.38%.The results will offer a decision support on the water conservancy planning and management for large-scaled polder.