古尔图河气象水文要素变化特征与下游艾比湖生态的关系

基于1974—2014年古尔图河新渠首水文站的水文气象数据,运用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及小波分析法对气象水文要素的序列变化趋势、突变特征及周期变化规律进行综合分析,并论证古尔图河气象水文要素与奎屯河、艾比湖之间的关系。结果表明:(1)近40年来,气温、降水、径流均呈现先降后升的变化趋势,其年际变化率分别为7.95%,15.84%,6.68%;(2)气温在1980s末期发生突变,降水突变时间早于气温(1980s初期),径流突变时间最晚(1990s末期);(3)气象水文要素呈现多种不同尺度的振荡周期,气温、降水和径流的年代际变化周期以25~28年、17~22年、4~6年最为常见;(4)径流与气温之间存在良好的相关性,与降水的关系较为复杂;(5)奎屯河的径流变化趋势基本与古尔图河呈正相关关系,20世纪70年代初期艾比湖生态环境恶化的主要驱动因素是人类的过度开发。

Variation Characteristics of Meteorological and Hydrological Factors in Gurt River and the Relationship Between Ebinur Lake Downstream Ecology

Based on meteorological and hydrological data of Xinqushou hydrological station in Gurt River in 1974 2014,the cumulative trend,mutation characteristics and cycle variation of meteorological and hydrological factors were analyzed by cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis.Meanwhile,the relationship between the meteorological hydrological factors of the Gurt River and Kuitun River and Ebinur Lake was analyzed.The results showed that:(1) In the last 40 years,the temperature,precipitation and runoff showed a trend of decreasing first and then rising,and the inter-annual variability was 7.95％,15.84％ and 6.68％,respectively;(2) Sudden changes occurred in the late 1980s,and the abrupt precipitation change time was earlier than the temperature (the early 1980s),and the runoff mutation time was at latest (the end of the 1990s);(3) Meteorological and hydrological factors showed a variety of different periods of oscillation cycle,while the most common interdecadal change cycle of temperature,precipitation and runoff was 25～28 years,17～22 years,4～6 years,respectively;(4) Runoff had a good correlation with air temperature,and its relationship with precipitation was complicated;(5) The trend of the runoff in Kuitun River was basically positive correlated with the Gurt River,and the main driving factor of the deterioration of the ecological environment in Ebinur Lake in the early 1970s was the overdevelopment by mankind.