安徽省农业源温室气体排放特征研究

安徽作为农业大省,农业源温室气体排放量巨大,笔者旨在对其农业源温室气体排放特征进行研究。研究方法为省级温室气体清单编制方法《省级温室气体清单编制指南（试行）》。结果表明：安徽省2005、2010、2012、2014年的农业源温室气体排放量折合二氧化碳当量(CO₂ e)分别为3916.97万、3246.90万、3182.70万、3313.20万t,CH₄、N₂O各占一半左右;其中又以种植业为主,约占70%左右。种植业的排放量相对稳定,4个年度的上下变化约45.11万t,仅占2012年种植业排放量的1.85%,这是由于安徽省的种植业从种类、规模到产量处于基本稳定状态;养殖业排放量变化则非常大,2005年排放量显著高于其他3个年份,这是由于安徽省农业生产模式由畜力向机械化转变、耕牛存栏量大幅度减少造成。随着奶牛、肉牛存栏量的增加,养殖业的排放量呈增长趋势。综上,安徽省的农业源温室气体排放量可能发生较大的增加,有效措施应该采取起来以抑制畜牧业排放量的增长趋势。

The Characteristics of Greenhouse Gas Emission from Agriculture in Anhui

As a farming-based province, greenhouse gas emission in Anhui is huge. The study aims on the characteristics of agricultural greenhouse gas emission in Anhui by adopting the methods according to The Provincial Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Inventory Preparation (Trial). The results showed that in 2005, 2010, 2012 and 2014, the greenhouse gas emission from agricultural sources in Anhui were equivalent to 39.1697 million, 32.4690 million, 31.8270 million and 33.1320 million tons, respectively, with CH₄ and N₂O accounting for about half of the total emission. Among them, the emission from planting industry was the largest, accounted for about 70%. The emissions from the planting industry were relatively stable, with about 451.1 thousand tons of variation in the four years, accounted for only 1.85% of the 2012 emission from the planting industry. This was due to the fact that the planting industry in Anhui was basically stable in terms of species, scale and yield. The emission of livestock farming in 2005 was significantly higher than that of the other three years due to the change of agricultural production pattern from animal power to mechanization and the decrease of cattle stock. With the increase of the stock of dairy cattle and beef cattle, the emission of breeding industry showed an increasing trend. In general, greenhouse gas emission from agricultural sources in Anhui may increase greatly, and effective measures should be taken to curb the growth trend of livestock industry emission.