| 城市工业用水量的灰色马尔可夫预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋巧娜,唐德善.城市工业用水量的灰色马尔可夫预测模型[J].节水灌溉,2007(5):54-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋巧娜 唐德善 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学商学院,南京,210098
2. 河海大学水利水电学院,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色GM(1,1)是预测城市工业用水量的模型,这种模型不适合长期的、随机和波动性较大的数据序列预测,但是马尔可夫模型适合描述随机波动性较大的预测问题.可以将这两种模型结合,构建灰色马尔可夫预测模型.按特定的状态划分方法,先用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型进行预测,再用马尔可夫模型预测结果进行优化,使预测精度大大提高.最后以抚顺市为例,预测结果证明了该模型的优势.
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| 关 键 词： | 城市工业用水量 预测模型 灰色GM(1 1)模型 马尔可夫模型 城市 工业 用水量 马尔可夫预测模型 Water Quantity Industrial City Prediction Model 优势 抚顺市 预测精度 优化 预测结果 方法 状态划分 结合 预测问题 随机波动性 描述 马尔可夫模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-4929（2007）05-0054-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-28 |
Grey Markov Prediction Model for City Industrial Water Quantity |
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| SONG Qiao-na,TANG De-shan.Grey Markov Prediction Model for City Industrial Water Quantity[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2007(5):54-56. |
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| Authors: | SONG Qiao-na TANG De-shan |
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| Institution: | 1. Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,China; 2. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering , Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,China |
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| Abstract: | GM(1,1) model is used for forecasting city industrial water quantity.This model is not suitable for forecasting data sequence in long term with randomness and great fluctuation.While Markov model is suitable to treat with problems with these characteristics.Two models are combined together to form a new model,namely grey Markov model,in this paper.According to the special state-division ways proposed in this paper,grey GM(1,1) model is used to forecast the data sequence firstly,then,Markov model is used to optimize the results from the grey GM(1,1)model.So,the prediction result is much more precise.Finally,taking the Fushun city as an example,the advantage of the grey Markov model is proved by the prediction result. |
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| Keywords: | city industrial water quantity prediction model grey GM(1 1)model Markov model |
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