气候与土地覆被变化下的水文响应模拟——以太行山八一水库流域为例

太行山区是华北平原的重要水源地,但近年来山区来水的逐渐减少已成为该地区水资源缺乏的重要原因之一。利用分布式水文模型SWAT,根据野外实际调查及室内实验获得了模型所需的水文地质参数,通过模型校准和验证,建立了太行山八一水库流域的水文模型,Nash-Sutteclife模型效率系数等评价结果显示,SWAT模型在该流域具有很好的适用性。结合该区历史气候与土地覆被变化趋势,分别假定了25种气候情景和4种土地覆被情景,模拟结果表明,气温降低和降水增加的情景下,流域的径流量明显增加,并且随着土地覆被的好转,径流量逐渐减少,蒸发量增加。从水文角度探查了太行山区径流变化的原因。

Study on Hydrologic Response to Climate and Land Cover Change in Bayi Reservoir Basin of Taihang Mountian Area

Taihang mountain area is a very important water source of North China Plain.But in recent years,gradual decrease of the runoff generated from mountain area has become one of the important reasons for the shortage of water resources.Using distributed hydrological model,SWAT,the hydrology and geology parameters were gained according to the data of field survey and indoor experiment,and the hydrological model for Bayi Reservoir Basin was established through calibrating and validating.Model performance was evaluated by using Nash-Sutteclife efficiency coefficient and root mean square error computation,and the results showed that SWAT model was suitable to this area well.Regarding to the climate change and land cover change trend in the history,25 kinds of climate change scenes and 4 kinds of land cover change scenes were assumed separately,the simulation result showed that the runoff would significantly increase along with the reduction of temperature and the increase of rainfall.Moreover,along with the improvement of land cover,the runoff would decrease and the evaporation would increase.The reason for the change of runoff generated from mountain area was analyzed from the hydrologic respect in this paper.